Ljubljana, 17 December (STA) - The Chamber of Commerce and Industry (GZS) expects Slovenia's economy to grow in the coming three years at about 2.5% annually, which will be 0.7 percentage points lower than the average in the last eight years.
Health care, social care, ICT, finance, real estate business and other business services will meanwhile be the activities posting higher nominal growth in added value.
Manufacturing and construction will meanwhile be posting lower growth rates, GZS's chief economist Bojan Ivanc told the press on Tuesday.
In manufacturing, lower growth will be a result of pressure on export prices and of weak growth in orders in certain industries, such as the car industry.
On the other hand, lower growth in construction will be due to high growth in the past, which cannot continue at the same pace, he explained.
Ivanc expects inflation, which is to hit an average 2% this year, to increase to between 2.5% and 2.6% in the coming three years.
"The government has taken measures to cushion monthly price growth, so we expect that in the medium term it will very likely have to abolish them sooner or later."
No major changes are expected in the labour market, where companies will have to boost productivity to remain competitive.
In services, employment will grow mainly in health care and social care and in services which require very highly skilled workers.
Average gross wage growth is expected to remain strong at around 6% next year, driven significantly by wage growth in the general government sector, which is expected to be around 7%.
In real terms, average net wage growth is expected to be around 2.5%, above the historical average of around 1.8%, according to Ivanc.
Industrial output in manufacturing will expand by 2.5%, and by 3.5% in 2026. Higher growth than that will be hindered by a lack of new orders.
Credit risks in Slovenia remain low, ratings agencies have upheld the country's very good outlook or even improved it from stable to positive.
Ivanc believes this will give the country certain leverage in fiscal policy, should that be necessary.
He believes there are three major risks to economic growth: geopolitical risks, a decline of globalisation, and tariff wars plus rising global prices of inputs.
Nevertheless, growth would be slightly above 1% over the next two years even under the pessimistic scenario and around 3% under the optimistic scenario, he added.
Looking at 2024, the chamber's director general Vesna Nahtigal praised the relaunch of social dialogue, the signing of a partnership between researchers, businesses and the government, and changes to the recording of work time.
She also welcomed the government's plan to draft a short work scheme, a measure companies will be able to resort to in case of low orders.
For next year, the GZS expects enhanced cooperation with the government, which should make more ambitions changes more promptly.
There are some other challenges, such as higher taxation of labour due to long-term care and health insurance contributions.
She thus welcomed the government's plans to lower labour taxes while introducing a tax on real estate.
Nahtigal also expects in early next year changes to the newly introduced system of electricity network charges, which has raised electricity bills for some companies.
