Ljubljana, 27 February (STA) - IMAD, the government's macroeconomic forecaster, has downgraded the GDP growth forecast for this year from 2.4% to 2.1%. For next year it reduced the forecast by 0.2 points, to 2.4%. Average annual inflation is expected to stand at 2.3% this year.
Growth this year is projected to outpace the 1.6% that the Statistics Office recently assessed was recorded in 2024. However, despite this acceleration, the pace remains slightly weaker than previously anticipated in autumn, IMAD acting head Maja Bednaš told the press on Thursday.
Bednaš highlighted that stronger GDP growth in 2025 will be driven primarily by domestic consumption, particularly private spending buoyed by wage increases and social transfers, alongside a rebound in public investment following last year's contraction.
Growth in goods exports is expected to soften slightly but will align with rising foreign demand, while services exports are forecast to accelerate further, she added.
As for the reasons for the downgrade, which is in line with similar corrections in the forecasts of the EBRD, OECD and Bank of Slovenia, Bednaš noted that uncertainties and risks have intensified since autumn.
These include US protectionist measures, geopolitical developments in the Middle East and Ukraine, and the competitiveness of the European economy. Domestically, challenges around the capacity to deliver large-scale investment projects were flagged as a key concern.
IMAD expects inflationary pressures to ease this year, with annual average inflation projected at 2.3% and the end-of-year inflation at 2.7%.
Looking ahead, the think tank anticipates a modest uptick in economic activity over the next two years. Growth in 2026 is forecast at 2.4%, though this marks a 0.2 percentage point downward revision from autumn projections. In 2027, economic expansion is expected to moderate slightly to 2.3%.
