London, 13 May (STA) - The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has slightly revised downwards its forecast for Slovenia's GDP, projecting a 1.9% expansion for 2025, a 0.1 percentage point downgrade from its February outlook. The forecast for 2026 has been adjusted downwards by the same degree, to 2.3%.
The updated projections are part of the EBRD's latest Regional Economic Prospects report, released in London on Tuesday at the start of the annual meeting of the bank's board of governors, which is also attended by Finance Minister Klemen Boštjančič.
The current 1.9% forecast for Slovenia in 2025 marks the second consecutive downgrade by the EBRD, which in February reduced the outlook by 0.6 percentage points compared to September 2024 expectations.
Despite these tempered projections, the anticipated 1.9% growth for 2025 would still represent an improvement over 2024, when, according to the EBRD's assessment, "economic growth slowed to 1.6%... as recovery in consumption and government spending was offset by negative net exports and a drop in investment."
The EBRD noted that "a highly open economy, Slovenia will be indirectly affected by higher US import tariffs via their effect on the German and Italian economies."
Furthermore, "Slovenia's indirect exposure to the US is also notable in the pharmaceutical sector through growing trade with Switzerland in this sector." "The US is a key export market for Swiss pharmaceutical companies, posing an important risk to Slovenia if tariffs are raised in this sector."
This observation is particularly pertinent given the strong presence of Swiss pharmaceutical leaders Sandoz and Novartis in Slovenia, for whom the US market is vital.
The report also highlights Slovenia's significant economic ties with China. It notes that Slovenia runs one of the largest trade deficits with China among EBRD economies, equivalent to around 13% of its GDP. Concurrently, imports from China constitute a notably high share of Slovenia's GDP, positioning it alongside the Kyrgyz Republic and Czechia as countries with significant import volumes relative to their economic size.
While acknowledging global headwinds as a potential risk to Slovenian GDP growth, the EBRD expects these to be counterbalanced domestically. The bank forecasts that "a recovery of public investment [will offset] the headwinds from US tariff policy" in 2025.
Looking ahead to 2026, the EBRD suggests that "economic growth could further increase to 2.3% on higher demand from the EU."
The EBRD's latest forecasts for Slovenia align broadly with the most recent projections from other domestic and international institutions.
The adjustments to Slovenia's outlook occurred within the context of a slight moderation in the EBRD's forecast for the entire region it serves - encompassing Central, Eastern, and South-Eastern Europe, the Western Balkans, North Africa, the Middle East, Turkey, and Central Asia.
For the region as a whole, the bank now projects 3% economic growth for the current year, a reduction of 0.2 percentage points from its February forecast, also marking the second successive downgrade for the region.
It attributes these widespread downward revisions primarily to heightened global economic uncertainty and expectations of weaker external demand, influenced by factors including international trade frictions and US tariff policies.
For 2026, the EBRD maintains its previous regional growth forecast of 3.4%. However, it cautions that this outlook remains subject to significant uncertainty arising from ongoing trade disputes and geopolitical tensions, particularly in locations such as Ukraine and the Middle East.
