London, 27 February (STA) - The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has downgraded its GPD growth forecast for Slovenia for this year, as it did for the broader region in which it operates. For Slovenia, the 2025 growth forecast has been adjusted from 2.6% to 2%, while the country's economy is expected to expand by 2.4% in 2026.
The EBRD projected Slovenia's GDP growth at 1.5% for last year. According to preliminary data from the national Statistics Office, growth in 2024 stood at 1.6% based on non-seasonally adjusted figures and 1.3% when seasonally adjusted.
While economic growth in Slovenia is expected to strengthen this year, the EBRD has tempered its outlook to 2%, primarily due to subdued domestic demand.
In its latest regional economic prospects report, the bank highlighted accelerating inflation and weak confidence as key risks. Investment is expected to benefit from EU funds and post-flood reconstruction initiatives, though the forecast for external demand remains highly uncertain amid global trade tensions.
The EBRD noted that Slovenia's GDP growth could accelerate to 2.4% in 2026 if trade-related risks do not materialise.
The bank has also revised its growth forecast for all EBRD regions, now anticipating 3.2% expansion in 2025, 0.3 percentage points lower than its September 2024 projection, followed by a slight uptick to 3.4% in 2026.
Analysts cautioned that persistent uncertainty over global trade continues to weigh on investment and production, while inflationary pressures linger and interest rates decline more slowly than expected.
The EBRD report notes that the proposed US 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, scheduled for mid-March, could for instance reduce Slovenia's, Bulgaria's, and Romania's GDP by 0.03 percentage points.
The bank will release a more detailed analysis of GDP trend forecasts in May.
